Stronger output despite global headwinds
Congo-Brazzaville closed the third quarter of 2025 with real GDP up 2.8 %, the National Economic and Financial Committee said after its year-end meeting in Brazzaville. The figure almost doubles the 1.5 % recorded in 2024, confirming a gradual pick-up despite sluggish world demand (CNEF report).
- Stronger output despite global headwinds
- Oil investment keeps engines humming
- Non-oil sector shows unexpected punch
- Inflation near the 3 % comfort zone
- Credit flows reach record levels
- Warning lights on bad loans
- Government securities in high demand
- CEMAC picture remains positive
- World context: resilience beats turbulence
- Household budgets feel tentative relief
- Jobs landscape shows gradual lift
- Focus on youth entrepreneurship
- Energy supply remains the swing factor
- Digital payments spur micro-commerce
- Women’s cooperatives tap new credit
- Looking ahead to the 2026 budget
- Expert advice: Keep reform pace steady
- What citizens can track next
Oil investment keeps engines humming
Pipeline upgrades at Djeno and new offshore wells helped shore up crude output, while service contracts benefited local subcontractors. The Ministry of Hydrocarbons notes that each percentage point of extra oil production currently injects nearly 30 billion FCFA into public revenue, cushioning external shocks to the budget.
Non-oil sector shows unexpected punch
Construction sites in Brazzaville’s Poto-Poto district, a bustling telecom start-up scene in Pointe-Noire and steady agro-processing orders lifted non-oil growth above 3 % for the first time in four years, the committee observed. Small retailers credit rising mobile money use for quicker turnover and fresher stock.
Inflation near the 3 % comfort zone
Average consumer prices should end the year at roughly 3 %, down from 3.1 % in 2024, according to BEAC economists. Vegetable oil, imported rice and electricity bills rose, yet lower transport costs and a good cassava harvest helped contain the overall index.
Credit flows reach record levels
Commercial banks had granted 1 816.4 billion FCFA in gross loans by 31 August, a 27.9 % leap in twelve months. A Pointe-Noire fish-processing entrepreneur says her first long-term facility “finally matches production cycles”, allowing her to hire 20 extra workers ahead of the festive export rush.
Warning lights on bad loans
Non-performing credits still grew 15.7 % to 264.8 billion FCFA. A senior BEAC analyst stresses that the share remains manageable, yet banks have been advised to reinforce provisioning. The regulator has also urged closer monitoring of real-estate exposures in the swiftly expanding suburbs of Gamboma.
Government securities in high demand
Treasury bills and bonds issued on the regional market rose 12.1 % year-on-year, taking outstanding stock to 2 659.3 billion FCFA. Demand exceeded supply by 4.7 %. Investors, reassured by fiscal reforms and a new debt-management strategy, sought three-year maturities offering yields just above 6 %.
CEMAC picture remains positive
Across the six-nation bloc, the composite economic activity index advanced 6.7 % over twelve months, down slightly from 8 % the quarter before. Sub-regional inflation cooled to 2.8 % in September. Overall 2025 growth is now pencilled in at 2.6 %, BEAC’s macroframe shows.
World context: resilience beats turbulence
The committee acknowledged headwinds from protectionist policies and geopolitical frictions. Still, the latest IMF World Economic Outlook projects global growth of 3.2 % this year and 3.1 % next. Finance Minister Christian Yoka called Congo’s trajectory “a disciplined response to unpredictable tides,” urging continued structural reforms.
Household budgets feel tentative relief
Purchasing power remains tight, yet the subdued inflation outlook offers breathing space. In the Moungali market, stallholder Reine-Pascaline M’Boulou reports cassava leaves now sell 200 FCFA cheaper per bundle than in July, “enough to attract customers who had switched to imported pasta.”
Jobs landscape shows gradual lift
The National Employment Agency registered 4 800 new formal contracts between January and September, up 9 % year-on-year. Many stem from civil works tied to oil logistics. A Pointe-Noire engineering student says the internship pipeline “feels real again” after pandemic-era stagnation.
Focus on youth entrepreneurship
Authorities pledge to channel part of the enlarged credit envelope toward start-ups. A scheme called Programme Espoir should guarantee 30 % of loans for young innovators. “We aim to lower collateral barriers without weakening banks,” explains a CNEF task-force member overseeing the programme’s rollout.
Energy supply remains the swing factor
Short but frequent power cuts in July and August trimmed factory shifts and froze cold-chain goods. The Energy Ministry now fast-tracks maintenance at the Centrale du Congo. If outages subside, analysts expect industrial growth to accelerate by an extra 0.4 percentage point in 2026.
Digital payments spur micro-commerce
Mobile wallets like M-Kudi processed 18 million transactions in nine months, up 35 %. Market analyst Lydie Ogoula links the surge to expanded 4G coverage and lower fees. “A seamstress receives payment before fabric is cut, which reduces cash flow stress throughout the value chain,” she notes.
Women’s cooperatives tap new credit
The Bank of Congo’s gender-focused line of credit financed 220 women-led cooperatives in 2025, double last year. Olive coconut-oil producer Mama Odette Ngo claims the 10-million-FCFA loan turned her backyard press into a semi-industrial unit, raising monthly output to three tonnes.
Looking ahead to the 2026 budget
The Finance Ministry will present a draft budget structured on a 3 % growth assumption and a fiscal deficit under 3 % of GDP. Officials intend to prioritise rural road maintenance and the social safety net to keep momentum broad-based.
Expert advice: Keep reform pace steady
Economist Armand Koumba warns that slipping back into pro-cyclical spending could “erase hard-earned stability.” He recommends continued subsidy rationalisation, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and transparency in state-owned enterprise accounts to preserve investor confidence.
What citizens can track next
Over the coming weeks the CNEF will release its final 2025 bulletin and a schedule for quarterly press briefings in 2026. Observers suggest following electricity supply metrics, credit-to-SME ratios and staple food prices to gauge whether the current recovery morphs into lasting growth.
